[spore]

I'm not sure if the flowcells are exactly cheap. And I'm sure it's going to be hard to manufacture those nanopores in high volume. This isn't a semiconductor process. ONT is really cool but they definitely have a bit of work to do before it's a large scale commercial ready product.

The no Sequel data is concerning. I fully expected to see at least some data come out from Pacbio by now. I understand there's bugs and and stuff to work out but if you can't even get 1 good data set to show off in 4 months then I'm thinking there may be bigger issues we don't know about.

[math_guy]

I'm not sure if the flowcells are exactly cheap. And I'm sure it's going to be hard to manufacture those nanopores in high volume. This isn't a semiconductor process. ONT is really cool but they definitely have a bit of work to do before it's a large scale commercial ready product.

The no Sequel data is concerning. I fully expected to see at least some data come out from Pacbio by now. I understand there's bugs and and stuff to work out but if you can't even get 1 good data set to show off in 4 months then I'm thinking there may be bigger issues we don't know about.

The lack of data concerns me too. I wonder if ANYONE has seen anything yet?

[GenoMax]

Dr. Keith Robinson has a roundup of news about Sequel.

[Ola]

Dr. Keith Robinson has a roundup of news about Sequel.

No, that is an old post describing the introduction of the RS system. Things have changed a lot: "Read lengths decay exponentially -- but with lots around 1Kb and quite a few around 5K", "The instrument is clearly a ways from really threatening Illumina & SOLiD".

Maybe he has a new (blank) page with Sequel news...

I know nothing about the manufacturing cost of nanopore flowcells, but given that the current version is $500 i would think it is substantially lower if it is detached from the ASIC.

[GenoMax]

It showed up with a new tag/date in my inbox.

But you are right . It appears that Dr. Robinson just removed an image and blogspot.com tagged the entire post as new. So we still remain in dark about Sequel data/performance.

[AllSeq]

It appears that Dr. Robinson just removed an image and blogspot.com tagged the entire post as new.

Keith wasn't trying to pull a fast one on you. He got a DMCA takedown notice for an image of the RSII (Why? No idea.) Rather than fight it, he just removed the image. Apparently he wasn't able to prevent it as showing up as a new post.

[AllSeq]

The lack of data concerns me too. I wonder if ANYONE has seen anything yet?

We still haven't seen any of the data ourselves, but William Blair (an equity research firm) has had some positive feedback from users. From their research report earlier today:

"Early feedback from users of PacBio’s Sequel has been positive. Initial user experience suggests that the Sequel is performing essentially in line with the RSII from a read length and quality perspective. Early users have been able to achieve throughput specs close to advertised levels (which is unusual for a platform in early access). Initial users of the Sequel are likely sophisticated RSII users, and thus it is unclear how this experience will translate to general commercial users, but we are encouraged by Sequel launch commentary thus far."

[spore]

Thanks for sharing that information. How does one get access to their research reports?

[AllSeq]

I'm not quite sure. We're on their distribution list because we periodically consult for them on the genomics market.

[nucacidhunter]

Yes. We prefer it in our labs. Labs steal every idea they can get their hands on in our experience. I come from a different field. Bio is the worst. Too much money and not enough smart people. Makes people just want to steal instead of coming up with it on their own. I know.... I know... That will make people mad here. But I have never seen so much theft of ideas in my life until I entered the world of biotech.

So...yeah...without trying to come off as being rude: we only trust ourselves. Why? Cuz we have had some of our work stolen before. In fact, by people at UCSD. In fact, if we had not hidden and made fake data, we would never have caught them. The best part of their theft is that they still hit us up for more money after getting caught. Bio...you have to love it!

Also, I am guessing this part of my post will irritate many people here. I miss my old field...and I know...someone will tell me to get the heck outta their field and please leave them alone. I beat you to that response

I wonder if you are still interested to buy Sequel even though there is no data out yet. I do not have one for sale.

[math_guy]

Yes, I still want to buy one. Three or four, actually.

I know there is not much data out yet. And I still don't really trust the company's management. But I am somewhat trusting of their scientists. And Roche can't be that stupid...can they?

I am waiting for the conference call this Thursday to see what I can glean from the management (after ferreting out the lies).

I SO badly want this machine to be for real. Our protocol plus this machine...I just can't explain how awesome it would be.

I have been trying to secure a device. But no real luck yet. I do have a letter of intent for 50% bandwidth from a lab that is getting their Sequel somewhat soon...but I don't know how interested I am with that deal. Plus...they'll most likely look at our data to reverse-engineer our protocol. Or I am paranoid. Also possible.

Sorry it took so long to respond. SeqAnswers blocked our address from using their site many months ago. Well...they basically blocked us. They slowed us down so much that it is useless. The funny thing is that about 400 people are on this address...all of us on campus at UCSD. I guess I am not a likeable guy. All SeqAnswers has to do is send me a private message asking me to stop posting on the site. I would have obliged. I am not a jerk. But they didnt...now I just tell people in the labs that use our internet that SeqAnswers ran out of money and only one guy is running the whole site from his house. I'll tell them I made that up tomorrow (in case they read this...which is unlikely since they hate that the site is so slow for them). Also, SeqAnswers, don't slow down specific addresses. It is lame. And childish. Just cancel my account or ask me not to post ever again. As I said, I would comply.

[ECO]

No one blocked you here, or slowed you down. Your paranoia is quite amusing.

The simplest explanation is that, since you're at a University, that someone else was spamming the site and you got caught in an over aggressive IP mask ban.

I have been debating weighing in on this thread for a while...

[ECO]

I don't have a ton of time to write all the things I want to. However, I know a couple things.

1. PacBio folk are the smartest in the industry, period.

2. They learned their lesson with bumps in the road with the RS rollout. Hunkapillar is not going to allow a problematic launch.

3. Their instruments are on the cutting edge for components and consumables. A hiseq is a microscope and a couple of pumps. The Sequal is so much more complex it's ridiculous. There are BOUND to be bumps in the road.

...so...don't read it the wrong way that they are not jumping to ship you three of them for cash. They are likely rolling them out to previously experienced friendly customers and ensuring the system and reagents are bulletproof.

If you don't already have an RS and significant PacBio experience, they are also probably wary of your sample prep learning curve. Without amplification, there are a ton of additional layers to worry about; converting people who can "do NGS" on illumina is not straightforward as all their problems with sample integrity and contamination are solved by PCR. With PacBio, everything matters in terms of DNA quality. (this is the part that Oxford will find out the more customers they have).

Anyway...awesome thread...

disclosure(s): i developed most of pacbio's sample prep. i worked there for 4 years. I have tons of friends there. I own no stock in them. I use their technology regularly.

[GenoMax]

@ECO: Do you have a theory as to why we have not seen any sequel data publicly as yet?

[math_guy]

I don't have a ton of time to write all the things I want to. However, I know a couple things.

1. PacBio folk are the smartest in the industry, period.

2. They learned their lesson with bumps in the road with the RS rollout. Hunkapillar is not going to allow a problematic launch.

3. Their instruments are on the cutting edge for components and consumables. A hiseq is a microscope and a couple of pumps. The Sequal is so much more complex it's ridiculous. There are BOUND to be bumps in the road.

...so...don't read it the wrong way that they are not jumping to ship you three of them for cash. They are likely rolling them out to previously experienced friendly customers and ensuring the system and reagents are bulletproof.

If you don't already have an RS and significant PacBio experience, they are also probably wary of your sample prep learning curve. Without amplification, there are a ton of additional layers to worry about; converting people who can "do NGS" on illumina is not straightforward as all their problems with sample integrity and contamination are solved by PCR. With PacBio, everything matters in terms of DNA quality. (this is the part that Oxford will find out the more customers they have).

Anyway...awesome thread...

disclosure(s): i developed most of pacbio's sample prep. i worked there for 4 years. I have tons of friends there. I own no stock in them. I use their technology regularly.

1) Smarter than Oxford, for sure? Like....put my money in Pacific Bio vs Oxford now? I can invest in both. One is public and the other is private. Both seem poised to possibly return over 200% in the next 18 months. Pacific Bio will probably get bought out. Or they'll file bankruptcy and lose at least 80% of their market value. Oxford will probably get bought out if they can get their device working the way it should.

2) I don't trust them. But I still hope I am wrong. Especially that guy...cuz I listen to him on conference calls and I talk to their managment. And I catch them all in lies. But occasionally I lie and I still deliver.

3) Then...would you buy the stock now before the conference call tomorrow?

I feel that I am not reading it the wrong way. I am reading it based on how I understand companies that are about to be bankrupt would act if they had something but didn't want everyone to know it. Or...if they were scared that they may not actually have it...but didn't want anyone to know. The way I am reading it is based on how I was treated by the company and the lies they told me. You would read it a different way. That's fine. Maybe you're right and I am wrong. I hope so. But still...they lied to me. I don't trust companies where the entire team tells me lies. From the bottom to the top. But still...I am hopeful...cuz I REALLY need this machine.