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Old 06-08-2019, 06:37 PM   #1
Location: USA

Join Date: May 2019
Posts: 10
Default Does this breakdown of HiSeq labs sound correct?

This is a continuation a previous thread I made:

I have been trying to better understand how many Novaseq's Illumina will sell in the coming years. It's a difficult question to answer because a lot of academic labs seem to be sticking with their HiSeq's for the time being.

Illumina has said that at the time of the Novaseq launch in 2017, there were 800 labs with HiSeqs 2000 through 4000 machines.

To further break down that 800 lab figure, I made a 2 x 2 matrix below with the 2 variables I think most influence labs to switch from HiSeq to Novaseq. This is based on a parsing of comments in the other thread.
Factor 1: Having no control vs. partial/full control over library creation

Factor 2: primarily using small "Rapid Run" mode runs with two lanes on a flowcell vs. "High Output" runs with all 8 lanes
I was hoping you guys could tell me if the chart below seems realistic. Does the breakdowns sound like they're in the right neighborhood? (15 / 5% / 20% / 60%)

Is there anything else that doesn't seem to reflect reality based on what you've seen in academic core labs etc?

p.s. As mentioned in the other thread I've been working on a personal project to better understand financial modelling and I thought Illumina was a great example of a company I know a little bit about. Would be happy to share my end result with folks here.

Last edited by potomac; 06-08-2019 at 07:30 PM.
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