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Old 08-03-2016, 12:41 PM   #45
math_guy
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Location: san diego

Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 71
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ECO View Post
I don't have a ton of time to write all the things I want to. However, I know a couple things.

1. PacBio folk are the smartest in the industry, period.

2. They learned their lesson with bumps in the road with the RS rollout. Hunkapillar is not going to allow a problematic launch.

3. Their instruments are on the cutting edge for components and consumables. A hiseq is a microscope and a couple of pumps. The Sequal is so much more complex it's ridiculous. There are BOUND to be bumps in the road.

...so...don't read it the wrong way that they are not jumping to ship you three of them for cash. They are likely rolling them out to previously experienced friendly customers and ensuring the system and reagents are bulletproof.

If you don't already have an RS and significant PacBio experience, they are also probably wary of your sample prep learning curve. Without amplification, there are a ton of additional layers to worry about; converting people who can "do NGS" on illumina is not straightforward as all their problems with sample integrity and contamination are solved by PCR. With PacBio, everything matters in terms of DNA quality. (this is the part that Oxford will find out the more customers they have).

Anyway...awesome thread...

disclosure(s): i developed most of pacbio's sample prep. i worked there for 4 years. I have tons of friends there. I own no stock in them. I use their technology regularly.
1) Smarter than Oxford, for sure? Like....put my money in Pacific Bio vs Oxford now? I can invest in both. One is public and the other is private. Both seem poised to possibly return over 200% in the next 18 months. Pacific Bio will probably get bought out. Or they'll file bankruptcy and lose at least 80% of their market value. Oxford will probably get bought out if they can get their device working the way it should.

2) I don't trust them. But I still hope I am wrong. Especially that guy...cuz I listen to him on conference calls and I talk to their managment. And I catch them all in lies. But occasionally I lie and I still deliver.

3) Then...would you buy the stock now before the conference call tomorrow?

I feel that I am not reading it the wrong way. I am reading it based on how I understand companies that are about to be bankrupt would act if they had something but didn't want everyone to know it. Or...if they were scared that they may not actually have it...but didn't want anyone to know. The way I am reading it is based on how I was treated by the company and the lies they told me. You would read it a different way. That's fine. Maybe you're right and I am wrong. I hope so. But still...they lied to me. I don't trust companies where the entire team tells me lies. From the bottom to the top. But still...I am hopeful...cuz I REALLY need this machine.
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