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Old 12-18-2015, 07:37 AM   #1
math_guy
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Default I guess I can trust Pac Bio enough to profit

Pac Bio just hit $11.70 per share. I posted here recently to see if anyone could advise or opine on Pac Bio. I told everyone that the stock was headed to $11.70. Well, this price gave my group enough profit to buy a Sequel for free.

I know people will only complain to me, but like I wrote before, I feel that I still owe this forum for the help I received a long time ago.

Anyhow, here's what I wanted to know, if anyone is interested in answering (or even guessing/recommending): we need 3 Sequels; how likely would it be to purchase 3 units on the open market? Or does anyone know if Roche is planning to sell their versions? We have labs in San Diego, Geneva and St Kitts (yeah...I know...odd...but that's where we are).

Just because I like to be honest, my group went all in on Pac Bio. We bought an additional 75,000 shares on the dip into the $6 dollar range. We believe in this technology and its application (at least to what we work on). We are just hoping that the machine and its specs are for real. Why?...because that is the basis for our entire protocol and associated software.

This sounds crazy, but we are willing to pay $500k for each Sequel. We will contractually obligate ourselves to run the machines 25% of the time for your labs' runs. You will, of course pay for the kits but we will also provide the labor at no cost. It is a good deal, in our opinion. We are also willing to create one custom solution for your lab. For us, a custom solution is the entire kit (minus the chip from Pac Bio...in other words, the reagents) for 1,000 regions up to 20kbp each. We will provide enough for 1,000 runs and you can keep the kit.

I know that people are probably not going to respond. And I am guessing that the handful who do respond will just try to make fun of me. I will ask, like I always do, that if you are going to make fun of me...can you PLEASE try to be funny? I am burned out on the complaints, insults, criticisms and accusations I get here. I am just a guy trying to solve problems.

Also, I know Pac Bio people read the handful of comments in this sub. If ANYONE there is interested in contacting me, you know how to reach me. The price I am willing to pay is the same: $500k. But you can't have our solution.

Want another stock tip? Probably not, but here it is anyhow: VXX. I have been in it since $14. Highly speculative...but I expect it will hit $50 within 6 months. Probably much sooner. Oh...and bitcoin. Bitcoin is what started my group and gave us the money we needed to build our solution. Ok...sorry about that. Don't ever buy stocks or make investing decisions from some guy on the internet. If you hate me then watch VXX and bitcoin. If they plummet then you can feel better and make fun of me. If bitcoin hits $550 then we will take 4 Sequels. If VXX hits $35 then we will take 5 Sequels. If they both happen....expect another post from me.

Thanks!
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Old 12-19-2015, 11:54 AM   #2
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Roche won't be selling instruments until 2nd half of 2016. If you're so desperate to get a Sequel why don't you try to re-build your relationship with pacbio? Or just gift a lab at ucsd 900k for the use of buying 3 sequels.
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Old 12-19-2015, 01:15 PM   #3
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Roche won't be selling instruments until 2nd half of 2016. If you're so desperate to get a Sequel why don't you try to re-build your relationship with pacbio? Or just gift a lab at ucsd 900k for the use of buying 3 sequels.
Hmmm...not a bad idea. I feel that the UCSD lab must have a contract not to sell their machines, though. But I am going to follow up on this as a general idea. The key thing is that I need the machines in my labs. UCSD labs, to my knowledge can sequence for outside labs but cannot sell their machines. But maybe I am wrong.

Ok. Thank you for that! I will see how it goes. I just need to track down the lab that gets one early. Unless you already know who they are?

Yay!! Someone gave me a good idea!!
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Old 12-19-2015, 09:13 PM   #4
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So you need the machines in your lab? You can't for example run the machine at the UCSD lab? I know other companies that have essentially "donated" tools to labs but then they're allowed to run their own stuff on it when they want.

There's potentially other options too. These days I know a lot of larger labs are hurting for money because of the changing landscape of government grants. You could propose to inject X amount of money to that lab, which they use to buy sequel instruments, and in return you own that lab space and can run the tool X amount of time. The benefit is they essentially get free sequels for x amount of time for their own lab members to use.

its hard to know who's getting instruments early beside roche and mt sinai. my guess is it would be all US providers who had multiple instruments or very good relations with pacbio. So potentially jgi or uc davis?

Or you reach out to pacbio again, saying sorry we got off on the wrong foot, and try to start over with them. The ideal would be to directly order from them. Ultimately they're a public company interested in making money so if you're persistent and professional then I don't see why it wouldnt be in there interest to enable you. Especially since you will be doing pretty good work with their tools.

I'm curious if anyone has information on how sequel is performing? They shipped their first instrument to mt sinai about a month ago. All I've heard is they had success sequencing with it. But no real details or rumors are floating around.
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Old 12-20-2015, 08:24 AM   #5
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So you need the machines in your lab? You can't for example run the machine at the UCSD lab? I know other companies that have essentially "donated" tools to labs but then they're allowed to run their own stuff on it when they want.

There's potentially other options too. These days I know a lot of larger labs are hurting for money because of the changing landscape of government grants. You could propose to inject X amount of money to that lab, which they use to buy sequel instruments, and in return you own that lab space and can run the tool X amount of time. The benefit is they essentially get free sequels for x amount of time for their own lab members to use.

its hard to know who's getting instruments early beside roche and mt sinai. my guess is it would be all US providers who had multiple instruments or very good relations with pacbio. So potentially jgi or uc davis?

Or you reach out to pacbio again, saying sorry we got off on the wrong foot, and try to start over with them. The ideal would be to directly order from them. Ultimately they're a public company interested in making money so if you're persistent and professional then I don't see why it wouldnt be in there interest to enable you. Especially since you will be doing pretty good work with their tools.

I'm curious if anyone has information on how sequel is performing? They shipped their first instrument to mt sinai about a month ago. All I've heard is they had success sequencing with it. But no real details or rumors are floating around.
Your advice is excellent. I REALLY appreciate it. I am going to work on this beginning Monday morning.

I may even contact PacBio again. But I can nearly guarantee you that they will never accept an order from us. Also, for whatever it's worth...expect a HUGE number of orders in the next quarterly report from PacBio...most likely sending the stock soaring. But again...don't invest based on some internet guy

Again, thank you for taking the time to write here and offering your advice. If there is anything we can do for you, please do not hesitate to ask.
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Old 12-20-2015, 09:55 AM   #6
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So you need the machines in your lab? You can't for example run the machine at the UCSD lab?
Yes. We prefer it in our labs. Labs steal every idea they can get their hands on in our experience. I come from a different field. Bio is the worst. Too much money and not enough smart people. Makes people just want to steal instead of coming up with it on their own. I know.... I know... That will make people mad here. But I have never seen so much theft of ideas in my life until I entered the world of biotech.

So...yeah...without trying to come off as being rude: we only trust ourselves. Why? Cuz we have had some of our work stolen before. In fact, by people at UCSD. In fact, if we had not hidden and made fake data, we would never have caught them. The best part of their theft is that they still hit us up for more money after getting caught. Bio...you have to love it!

Also, I am guessing this part of my post will irritate many people here. I miss my old field...and I know...someone will tell me to get the heck outta their field and please leave them alone. I beat you to that response

Last edited by math_guy; 12-20-2015 at 10:07 AM.
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Old 12-20-2015, 07:44 PM   #7
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Well that sucks you have been in an environment like that. I would hope pacbio would be open to reopening the conversation. They're a company selling a product and service and their job is to help the customers. I think eventually you will be able to buy directly from them. But they may play hard to get while they have a large backlog to fill? Or maybe they worry of your lack of pacbio sequencing experience and don't want early customers who may not use it correctly and then bash their product. This happened with the RS launch and almost killed the company. This could be solved by agreeing to sign an NDA or something.
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Old 12-20-2015, 11:06 PM   #8
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Well that sucks you have been in an environment like that. I would hope pacbio would be open to reopening the conversation. They're a company selling a product and service and their job is to help the customers. I think eventually you will be able to buy directly from them. But they may play hard to get while they have a large backlog to fill? Or maybe they worry of your lack of pacbio sequencing experience and don't want early customers who may not use it correctly and then bash their product. This happened with the RS launch and almost killed the company. This could be solved by agreeing to sign an NDA or something.
Yes. Another good idea. An NDA. I will ask them about that. But, like I wrote earlier, they won't sell to us. I made fun of their CEO (only cuz he made fun of us). And I did it here on this forum. Their VP hung up on me twice. They told me I would never be able to order from them. And then...the best...they told me I cannot use them to profit. That is the best part of all. I profited enough off of them to buy 2 machines and tons of smart cells for free. When Illumina buys them I will have made enough to buy 5 machines for free. And I have a good relationship with Illumina. They will definitely sell to me.

I am going to call Pac Bio tomorrow (because of your kindness in taking the time to write here for me and also because you advice was really good advice). No one will care but I will report here on how it went.

And yeah...it did suck that people tried to steal our work. The ironic part was that we tried really hard to give it away for free and no one cared. It wasn't even that impressive...what we did. It was just different from how people in this field would attack a problem.

Anyhow, again...I am thankful for your kindness. And even more thankful for your advice and direction. I hope I can repay the favor one day.
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Old 12-26-2015, 07:43 AM   #9
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The University of Edinburgh and Cold Spring Harbor NY bought one according to twitter.
And Cold Spring Harbor is a service provider. May be worth contacting them since it looks like they should get an instrument in Q1.
http://cshl.edu/Research/PacBio.html

At this rate it looks like the stock could hit $20 relatively quickly. You'll have enough money for a few more sequels lol
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Old 12-28-2015, 08:01 AM   #10
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The University of Edinburgh and Cold Spring Harbor NY bought one according to twitter.
And Cold Spring Harbor is a service provider. May be worth contacting them since it looks like they should get an instrument in Q1.
http://cshl.edu/Research/PacBio.html

At this rate it looks like the stock could hit $20 relatively quickly. You'll have enough money for a few more sequels lol
I wonder if they will be using their Sequels nearly all the time? I would kinda not be surprised to hear that they weren't using them full time but I wonder if they would be interested in running our samples when they are not scheduled....hmmm...I am gonna contact them and ask them. Why not. My guess is they tell me no chance but we'll see.

I was also considering just sort of following your advice on a lab in the US. Maybe there is an RS II lab that wants the Sequel but doesn't have the budget, and they can get Pac Bio to deliver to them quicker. Maybe I can purchase the machine for them and let them use it 30% of the time while making it available to me the other 70%. Is that a reasonable deal, do you think?

And yeah...we will see if they hit $20. Here is what could derail that: (1) Illumina has a machine waiting and just didn't announce it out of fear of leaving their existing customers dangling with recent but outdated technology...and now they have to announce (2) Sequel data comes back much dirtier than was expected (3) there is a long term supply chain issue with one or more components in the Sequel (4) no other labs and/or biotech companies understand the value of this machine...or....basically I just don't understand sequencing (honestly, that is possible).

Otherwise Roche or Illumina buys them and the stock goes to $25-35 and I start all over with the new company...but this time I buy 5 units and hopefully they take me more seriously than Pac Bio did.

Pac Bio is still giving me the run-around, since I told you I would detail how it is going with them. I contacted them via email. They haven't called me but they have emailed me asking me to give them a bunch of company background info as well as somewhat detailed financial records. I told them we will pay cash. We will pre-pay in full immediately upon order acceptance. They don't answer my questions regarding when I would be in the queue. They take way too long to respond by email. They don't like me. They never had the bandwidth to sell to me. They are gearing themselves for a sale of their company but they are trying their best to disguise that. As a customer, I can tell you that Illumina would be falling over themselves to take my $1 million order. This company is not in that mode...they are in the mode of faking everything with regard to sales. Or...they have, literally, the worst sales team...of all time. I laugh when I read comments about their management team being so good. This is a company that is about to be successful because their only competitor is mediocre, in a market that is about to explode.

Ugh...they are so stupid. I wish I were the one negotiating on behalf of whomever buys them. If it is Illumina...my advice is to bid low...your only other competitor is Roche. If Roche outbids you then they are stuck with Smart cell technology. My guess is that will be highly constraining long--term. No sale means no cash flow for Pac Bio other than sales of this machine and flow cells. They already shut down the majority of R&D (according to their own records). So...yeah...they need to sell. And they only have one machine designed....and no money left. Oh...and they would need a real sales team. That costs money.

Last edited by math_guy; 12-28-2015 at 08:16 AM.
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Old 12-29-2015, 01:12 PM   #11
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I think it's a reasonable proposal. Academic labs always have budget issues so your offer would be reasonable to labs that lack the budget but still want to have cutting edge technology for research. Maybe UCSD is a good option since they are local?

I would keep pushing pacbio in parallel. They're at least answering your email which is a good step forward. Most companies are on holiday shutdown right now so that could be why things are moving slow. But I think if your persistent enough you will eventually get your instruments. It should be a no brainer for them.

Waiting for a buyout is risky. Since Pacbio is a public company it can take months to get all the paperwork and approval to finalize the buyout. So that could still push you out a few quarters.
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Old 01-11-2016, 09:27 AM   #12
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For those (maybe one or two people here...maybe...) who followed this post: Pac Bio blew me off. They will not sell to my company.

They did announce that they have taken orders for 49 Sequels so far. My order for 3 Sequels can not have been included in that number (legally, at least ).

Stock fell to $10 this morning. I bought a few thousand more shares at just over $10.

49 Sequels is pretty decent. But I feel that it should have been closer to 100. I am guessing that many other analysts felt the same as me, which is probably why the stock price dropped.

Am I the only person who gets the value of this machine? I'll ask again (to no response): do I just not get sequencing? I already found out a long time ago that I ain't smart. But still...this is one that I just don't get.
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Old 01-12-2016, 06:22 AM   #13
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Here are the issues I see:

(1) You are paying much more money (10X? I haven't looked into it recently) per base at a (raw read) higher error rate for PacBio reads compared to HiSeq reads.

(2) The instruments are expensive. All it takes is for Oxford Nanopore Technologies to reach approximately the same error rates as PacBio at the same or better reagent costs and it seems like it would be all over for PacBio.

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Old 01-12-2016, 09:18 AM   #14
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Here are the issues I see:

(1) You are paying much more money (10X? I haven't looked into it recently) per base at a (raw read) higher error rate for PacBio reads compared to HiSeq reads.

(2) The instruments are expensive. All it takes is for Oxford Nanopore Technologies to reach approximately the same error rates as PacBio at the same or better reagent costs and it seems like it would be all over for PacBio.

--
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If Oxford solves some problems then, of course, they will be a true competitor.

And yes, I know that Sequel is more expensive per base...sort of. You see, this machine is more accurate. Much more accurate. That is where the Sequel outpaces HiSeq's cost per base. The cost per base for high accuracy scans is much lower for Sequel. Not to mention the long reads. For us...and eventually lots of other labs when they finally figure it out (which, for the record makes me wonder why almost no one other than the labs who ordered the 49 units gets it) this machine is a game-changer. Is it the biggest game-changer ever? No. But it is pretty significant. If it works.

***Unless, like I often write, I just don't understand sequencing. However....I am beginning to wonder if others are also starting to get it. 49 orders...that is more than they have ever had in one quarter. And I expect that pace to accelerate as other labs begin seeing what this means.
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Old 01-12-2016, 10:21 AM   #15
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Maybe PacBio rejected most of the entities trying to order the Sequel.

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Old 01-12-2016, 11:40 AM   #16
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Maybe PacBio rejected most of the entities trying to order the Sequel.

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That's exactly what I was thinking. I have been going over it since they began giving me the run around. To be honest: that is part of the reason I bought so much of their stock. I have never experienced anything like that before.

Think about it: they blew off someone who was calling and emailing them daily to please sell them 3 machines. For a wire transfer. Immediately. Months ago. And at least 6 months before we would have received the first machine.

In other words, they didn't want to take too many orders. That means that they know demand is high but they need to manually slow it down. I have zero trust in most publicly traded biotech companies (don't be mad if you own or work at one...I have little trust in other fields as well). If things were normal then they would have been falling over themselves to take my $1 million and book it for that quarter's sales.

I called them out on it. Told them I was gonna buy a ton of stock. Then I did that. Then I called back and told them what I did and asked if there were any chance they would take my order. They hung up on me. That's all I needed to know. Something was up. Clinics and labs have this machine. The papers are coming out. Someone bigger bought another one. I am pretty sure Carl Icahn got in on it as an investor.

They are messing with orders to mess with the stock price. That is my guess. I gambled on that and have made money based on that assumption.

I know. I just wrote a lot. But I feel we are hours or days away from knowing something. Hopefully it is good news.
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Old 01-13-2016, 08:54 PM   #17
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I believe they mentioned they would be restricting orders for the first quarter or two. They mainly want to ship to repeat US customers initially. So I wouldn't be surprised if a number of people were told to come back in 3 months to place an order. Which makes sense given their big screw up with the RS. They shipped too many too soon and didn't have the proper infrastructure to manage all the sites. Especially since the RS was buggy as hell. Most customers began to actively trash talk the instrument and it gave pacbio a horrible reputation that took years to fix. They're going to be careful not to make the same mistake by slowly ramping up volume with customer sites they can trust.

Also there are some strong rumors roche put a $20 offer to buy them. I wonder if we will hear anything soon.
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Old 01-13-2016, 11:53 PM   #18
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I believe they mentioned they would be restricting orders for the first quarter or two. They mainly want to ship to repeat US customers initially. So I wouldn't be surprised if a number of people were told to come back in 3 months to place an order. Which makes sense given their big screw up with the RS. They shipped too many too soon and didn't have the proper infrastructure to manage all the sites. Especially since the RS was buggy as hell. Most customers began to actively trash talk the instrument and it gave pacbio a horrible reputation that took years to fix. They're going to be careful not to make the same mistake by slowly ramping up volume with customer sites they can trust.

Also there are some strong rumors roche put a $20 offer to buy them. I wonder if we will hear anything soon.
There is definitely something going on internally. For sure, they have received an offer.

$20 is too low, in my opinion.

I believe that they wanted only existing customers who know their chemistry to receive the first Sequels. But I don't believe that they didn't take my orders because they were afraid of bad press from a disgruntled lab. I believe that they were told to limit orders to new customers so they could guage interest and then use that internal info to keep the share price low. I know...it does sound super conspiratorial. But, it is what I would have done if it were legal. I would want to keep the price low so that I could keep buying stock. Then, I would take those pent up orders and add them the following quarter to falsely inflate sales growth. They can't ship anyhow. There is no damage to them in showing mediocre sales for the Sequel this quarter. If they delay a ton of orders this quarter then add them next quarter, it will make them look like Sequel growth is parabolic. That is more interesting to a company looking to buy them. Much more interesting than 49 initial orders. Parabolic sales growth will drive up the offer price for the company.

They refused my orders 3 times because they didn't want some unknown company (my company) taking 3 early spots in the delivery queue. They didn't want to book that sale. Am I gonna pursue it? No. I profited off of what I gathered. Even if I got everything wrong and the real reason they didn't accept my order was truly because I didn't have an appropriate company logo (yup...they really told me that)...I don't care anymore. I made almost a million bucks off of Pac Bio. In 3 months. And if they get bought..I will make more. And...if I still want their machine in 6 months, I will use that million bucks to purchase it on the open market. The best part of all: if I am TOTALLY off base and I misconstrued everything....I still made a million bucks (so far). But I doubt I am wrong.

Also, just for the record, if they sell for $20 then management has no long term confidence in their technology. This machine, if the specs are for real, is a difference maker. I know people here keep thinking I am crazy about that. But...I'm not.
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Old 03-18-2016, 09:38 AM   #19
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In hindsight some of your conspiracy theories may end up true. The stock tanked this quarter while pacbio handed out record levels of options at a cheap price to their executives. If they report >100 bookings for this quarter then I suspect you were right about them limiting orders.

Of course the alternative is the box isn't working well and bookings are low and investors got wind of that and pulled out.

It looks like a few service providers have received their sequels. Does anyone have information on how the sequencing data is or if these service providers and now allowing customers to sequence using sequel?
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Old 03-18-2016, 11:41 AM   #20
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They were, kinda, conspiracy theories. We sold our initial holdings when the stock hit $11.70 and finished when it hit $13. We bought another 75,000 shares when it dipped below $6 a while back. We are still holding onto that (with a sell order scheme set up to execute if it approaches $6).

I so badly wanna know what is going on with the Sequel. The drop in the stock price is partly due to Pac Bio selling shares to cover expected costs this year. And partly due to Oxford's patent leak due to the potential lawsuit from Illumina. It may also be partly due to lousy data from the first group of machines, but I have not heard much yet either.

This company's history of being dishonest...ugh...it was the boldest financial risk I have taken in a LONG time when I bought that stock an hour after the Sequel press release last year. I hope they are not lying again and I still hope they are bought out (preferably by a company that won't be afraid to spend on R&D).

Lastly, I hope Oxford beats everyone to it and I can buy their solution instead. I rarely see posts here in the Oxford sub. In my opinion, it should be more active.
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